The Bull Market Report ä
August 24, 1998
Volume 2, #46

The Bull Market Report is published by http://www.bull-market.com.  Visit Bull-Market.com for your free email subscription to the newsletter.

This report covers Monday's market activity.

Blue-chip stocks scored some gains Monday, but the broad market
finished mixed after earlier trying to extend the rebound from
Friday's steep drop, but failing.

U.S. bonds fell for the first time in four days as the dollar declined
against the yen and equity markets stabilized, causing investors to
balk at yields near record lows.

Benchmark 30-year Treasury bonds gave back some of Friday's gains,
falling ½ point and pushing the yield up 3 basis points to 5.46
percent. On Friday, they posted the biggest gain in more than two
months as tumbling bond and currency markets in Russia and Latin
America, and falling stocks around the world, drove investors to the
relative safety of U.S. government debt.

U.S. stocks were mixed as Chevron Corp. and other companies that
depend on economic growth to increase profits fell, while drugmakers
such as American Home Products Corp. gained.

Yields on U.S. government securities maturing all the way out to 2028
are below the Federal Reserve's 5.50 percent target for overnight
lending between banks. Some traders say that's a signal the Fed may
lower interest rates before long to offset a slowing economy.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 7-to-6 margin on the New
York Stock Exchange, with 1,413 up, 1,650 down and 496 unchanged.

NYSE volume totaled 560 million shares, down from 725 million on
Friday, option expiration day.

Overseas Monday, Tokyo's Nikkei stock average fell 2.0%, Germany’s DAX
index rose 1.4%, and London's FT-SE 100 rose 1.4%.

Amazon (AMZN) was up $5 to $135, Yahoo (YHOO) up 2 to $98, American
Express (AXP) up 2 to 97, IBM up ¾ to 128 ½, Lucent (LU) up 1 to 88,
but Qwest (QWST) was down 2 to 31 ½. The Tellabs and Ciena merger
appears to ON again, with TLAB dropping 4 to 58 and CIEN adding 5 to
36. Traders say that Tellabs will offer .7 to .8 shares for Ciena,
down from the 1 for 1 exchange that they originally offered.
Microsoft, Cisco and Intel hardly budged for the day.

COMMENTARY
Monday was a sleepy August Monday with prices rallying in the morning,
fading later and then closing mostly higher, but somewhat mixed, for
the day. The S&P was up nicely today but Nasdaq was down. So, once
again, the big caps were up and the smaller caps were down. The
average Russell 2000 small cap has lost over 40% of its value since
the highs earlier in the year. Comments by Goldman Sachs' U.S. stock
strategist Abby Joseph Cohen, however, added support to the market
after midday. Cohen, one of Wall Street's most respected stock market
analysts, said U.S. stocks are five to eight percent undervalued, and
reiterated her well-known year-end price targets - forecasting that
the Dow will hit 9,300. In both cases, as she has said many times,
she expects the indices to easily reach and surpass her targets.

Among the big Nasdaq movers Monday were Ciena Corp. (CIEN) which
jumped 5 to close at 36 1/8. The company gained back 16 percent of
its value following Friday's big sell-off after AT&T said it would not
further evaluate Ciena's products that increase the capacity of fiber
optic phone lines and data networks. Ciena said that it is
comfortable with current analyst revenue expectations for 1998 and
1999, despite losing out on any possible AT&T purchase.

We are looking for calmer, higher markets this week.

Good investing!

IN THIS ISSUE YOU WILL FIND:

$$$$$ IBM TO OFFER THE COBRA NEXT WEEK
$$$$$ INTEL RATING RAISED
$$$$$ LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES UNVEILS SPEECH SOFTWARE
$$$$$ SPRINT RAISES THE SPEED LIMIT ON NETWORK DATA FLOW
$$$$$ THE PC MAGAZINE 100 MOST INFLUENTIAL COMPANIES
$$$$$ CISCO NO. 1 IN INTERNET CONCENTRATORS IN 2Q REPORT
THE HIGH TECH ARENA - The Microsoft Juggernaut Rolls On

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NEWS ON STOCKS WE LIKE:
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$$$$$ IBM TO OFFER THE COBRA NEXT WEEK
IBM aims to upset the sleepy conformity of the consumer personal
computer industry next week when it unveils a screaming-fast machine
designed to stir excitement among power-hungry PC users, industry
sources said. The sleek, black PC, code-named "Cobra," will run on
the new Pentium II 450 megahertz chip that INTEL CORP is set to
introduce on Monday, and will come with 128 megabytes of computer
memory and a 16.8 gigabyte hard disk. The new machine will carry a
list price of slightly more than $2,000 for a full-power machine that
promises not to be quickly outdated.

$$$$$ INTEL RATING RAISED
Piper Jaffray said they raised his rating on INTEL CORP to a strong
buy and raised their 1998 and 1999 earnings estimates on the chip
giant, saying the outlook for the company is the strongest in several
quarters. They raised their 1998 estimates to $3.13 a share from
$3.07 previously and 1999 estimates to $3.81 from $3.58 a share,
respectively. Their new 12-month price target for Intel is $105, or
27 times 1999 earnings estimates.

COMMENT: Now that’s aggressive and we think a bit high. We could
see 23 times earnings, but not 27. Our price target is $95 for this
time next year.


$$$$$ LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES UNVEILS SPEECH SOFTWARE
Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU), a large telecommunications equipment
developer and manufacturer, said it was launching new state-of-the-art
voice-activated computer software.

The software, the Lucent Speech Application Platform, is used to
create voice systems for personal computers. The systems were of a
caliber previously available only on telephones.

The software is available immediately. Lucent said its first three
customers for the product were Intel Corp. (INTC), Cambridge
Consultants Ltd. and 900 News Inc./Stock News Now.

COMMENT: We think Lucent in the 80’s is a good value. The high for
the year is 108 ½ and today’s close is $88, up 1.

$$$$$ SPRINT RAISES THE SPEED LIMIT ON NETWORK DATA FLOW
400 Percent Increase Will Give Sprint World's Fastest Internet
Backbone Route

Sprint Corp. (FON) today announced that it plans to significantly
boost the transmission speed and bandwidth of its Internet backbone to
OC-48 (2.5 gigabits per second), the fastest type of backbone service
available. The upgrade from OC-12 (622 megabits per second) will
dramatically increase Sprint's bandwidth by more than 400 percent.
One OC-48 connection could support more than 175,000 dial-up users
sending and receiving files at the same time.

This service enhancement promises to meet consumer demands for fast,
reliable performance over the Sprint Internet backbone. With data
moving at 2.5 gigabytes per second (Gbps) over the Sprint fiber optic
network, business users will have reliable and higher speed
connectivity to expand their operations globally in such emerging
applications as Internet commerce.

At the core of Sprint's upgrade are the use of Cisco Systems, Inc.'s
12000 series Gigabit Switch Routers (GSRs) and CIENA Corporation's
dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) technology. Cisco and
CIENA have recently combined forces in Internet Protocol (IP) over
DWDM technology to develop a high-capacity optical IP backbone. This
high-speed deployment by Sprint ties the Cisco 12000 GSR directly to
CIENA's long-haul DWDM systems to create an expanded optical layer to
Sprint's all-digital, all-fiber network. The Cisco 12000 will
interface directly into CIENA's DWDM system interfaces at 2.5 Gbps,
without the need for additional intermediate network elements such as
SONET terminal multiplexers.

COMMENT: This is a good sign for Ciena, as they have struggled
recently. For Cisco, it’s just one more deal in their quest to take
over the world. For Sprint, it proves their desire to maintain their
strong position in the bandwidth business.

$$$$$ THE PC MAGAZINE 100 MOST INFLUENTIAL COMPANIES
IBM, Intel and Microsoft Continue to Top PC Magazine's List; Cisco and
Lucent Turn in Strong Performances; Yahoo! Leaps to #13 from #99

PC Magazine, a Ziff-Davis publication (ZD), today announced their
annual listing of the top 100 most influential companies in
computing -- the PC Magazine 100 -- a feature in the magazine's
upcoming September 22 issue. Microsoft Corp., Intel Corp. and IBM
Corp. hold on to the top positions, respectively, while Dell Computer
Corp. and America Online Inc. make their top 10 debut this year.

The top ten:

1. Microsoft Corp.
2. Intel Corp.
3. IBM Corp.
4. Compaq Computer Corp.
5. Hewlett-Packard Co.
6. Cisco Systems Inc.
7. Sun Microsystems Inc.
8. America Online Inc.
9. Dell Computer Corp.
10. Netscape Communications Corp.

PC Magazine produced the list so buyers could gain insight into the
relative performance and standing of those key companies most
impacting today's fast-paced PC market. Because of its leadership
position, PC Magazine is well-positioned to closely examine these
companies and track their progress over time.

"History has shown that one hot product or idea or a healthy dose of
venture capital can turn a sleeping giant or the new kid on the block
into the latest trendsetter," says Michael J. Miller, executive vice
president and editor-in-chief of PC Magazine.

Three dozen PC Magazine senior editorial staff members debated the
relative influence of hundreds of companies, considering such factors
as annual revenues, key product lines and market share; however,
financial success alone did not determine final rankings. Some of the
hottest companies in the business and some of the highest-ranked in
the magazine's estimation remain barely profitable.

Last year's leaders still remain on top. And while there are 20
percent fewer Internet companies on this year's list as compared with
last year's, they still represent one-third of the PC Magazine 100.

Highly-visible Amazon.com is one of sixteen companies joining the PC
Magazine 100 for the first time. Newcomers include:

Lucent Technologies Inc. (31)
Amazon.com Inc. (33)
Cendant Corp. (42)
nVidia Corp. (50)
Rambus Inc. (52)
MetaCreations Corp. (58)
3Dfx Interactive Inc. (68)
Gartner Group Inc. (73)
Quantum Corp. (82)
Vocaltec Communications Ltd. (83)
Dragon Systems Inc. (88)
Quark Inc. (92)
CIDCO Inc. (93)
Peoplesoft Inc. (94)
Home Network (97)
In Focus Systems Inc. (98)

The complete Top 100 list can be found online at http://www.pcmag.com
and in the September 22 issue of PC Magazine.

COMMENT: You will see the leaders of the future on these lists.

$$$$$ CISCO NO. 1 IN INTERNET CONCENTRATORS IN 2Q REPORT
Dataquest said its preliminary second quarter data confirmed that
Cisco Systems Inc. has moved into the top spot in the market for
remote access concentrators, the equipment used by Internet service
providers (ISP’s) to handle incoming calls from computer users. Cisco
showed explosive growth during the last year, nearly doubling its
market share to become No. 1 in the hotly contested Internet
concentrator business, dislodging former leaders 3Com Corp. and Ascend
Communications Inc. Dataquest analysts project healthy growth for the
remote access concentrator market as companies rely on the Internet to
increase productivity

We REPEAT the following article for those that missed it. We have
received some VERY positive feedback from our readers.

OUR NEW EDITOR DEPARTMENT!

THE HIGH TECH ARENA

The Microsoft Juggernaut Rolls On

By Joe Arena

With the IPO of Geocities last week, combined with Microsoft quietly
increasing it's reach on the Internet, we may be getting closer to the
point where many are going to realize that the emperor has no clothes
relative to the valuations of Internet stocks. With e-commerce expected to reach
$28 billion this year, there is no doubt of the prolific growth potential
of this nascent industry. But with competition for ad revenues increasing,
investors are going to take a much closer look at the viability of each
individual company's business model, and the rising tide will no longer lift all
boats.

Geocities exemplifies the growing challenge of leveraging unique
visitors and pageviews into revenue growth better than most Internet companies.
The company generated 14.8 million unique visitors and 925 million
pageviews last month. Although Geocities is the seventh most popular site on the
web, there is a paradox between their business model and the prospect of
generating advertising revenues. The company was founded as a place in
cyberspace for people who eschew advertising and business to develop their own
websites. This perception still exists, and it is making the selling of
advertising a difficult task. To illustrate, consider that Infoseek (SEEK), which
is ranked the number nine web site, had three times the ad revenue versus
Geocities in the recently ended quarter. This company is in a business with no
significant barriers to entry, rampant competition, questionable management, and
dubious prospects at best for becoming profitable. It has been a losing
proposition to short Internet IPO's, and Geocities may not be an excellent short
candidate despite it's questionable fundamentals. However, those who expect it
to appreciate in the manner of Amazon.com or Yahoo may be severely
disappointed.

Microsoft, on the other hand, is now a close second to Yahoo in terms
of unique users, with 24.1 million versus 26.6 for Yahoo. This figure
includes not only users of MSN.com, but all other Microsoft sites as well. The
plan is for Microsoft to integrate all their sites into one portal site
(MSN.com) this fall. This will include Hotmail (e-mail), Expedia (on line travel
service), Carpoint (online car buying service), and Home Advisor (online real
estate service). Microsoft Expedia now boasts 2.5 million users per month,
and is driving bookings of around $6 million per week. More importantly,
Microsoft will now begin penetrating the more lucrative Corporate Travel space
in a big way with American Express Interactive. Estimates are that 300
corporations will be participating in this service by the end of this year. These
corporations, as you might have guessed, are all NT and BackOffice
accounts. Microsoft's acquisition of Hotmail could also prove to be very
rewarding, as it now has over 21 million subscribers, and is signing up about
100,000 per day. Microsoft Carpoint is now driving business in excess of $250
million per month through automobile dealers. How about MSFDC, a joint venture
with First Data Corp for online bill paying? At some point in time, probably
determined by the evolutionary pace of encryption technology and user interfaces,
we will all be paying our bills on line. However, right now, six major banks
have signed agreements with Microsoft to participate.

Last week, Microsoft took another major step toward becoming number
one. First, the company signed an advertising agreement for Home
Advisor with Yahoo on its finance and real estate sites. Microsoft also signed
distribution agreements with WhoWhere, Infoseek, Tripod, Switchboard, Pathfinder,
DoubleClick, BigYellow, and GTEInterNet. Web sites of USA Today,
Worth Magazine, and US News And World Report.

The launch of MSN.com is expected to reach 30% of Internet users
immediately. Since only 3% of the world's population has Internet
access right now, that number is small on a percentage basis as well
as an absolute basis. But in five years if a billion people have
Internet access, this number becomes even more significant if you
extrapolate some share growth. It is also germane to bear in mind
that e-commerce could conceivably be a trillion dollar business in the
next 5-7 years.

There are those who question the competitive threat that America
Online (AOL) represents to Microsoft. There is no question that
America Online has developed brand equity, which is an incalculable
asset. Despite this, it is far too early in the game for this brand
equity to be an important consideration. Was brand equity able to
prevent the demise of Apple Computer? How about the equity that
Netscape Navigator developed in the early stages of the browser wars?
The fact remains that the Microsoft mantra of "embrace and extend" has
proved to be a formidable strategy which has been able to overcome
many of Microsoft's late entries into certain markets. The
risk/reward ratio of betting that Microsoft will not get it right when
it comes to competing with America Online is not favorable. Consider
that MSN.com already boasts more unique users than AOL, which very few
people realize. More importantly, it is all about content, and
Microsoft understands this better than anyone. To illustrate this,
consider the following analogy. When you watch Seinfeld on TV, does
it matter whether it is on ABC or NBC? Of course not; however, if
all your favorite television shows were on NBC, there would be no
reason to watch other stations. This is the rationale behind
Microsoft's strategy of bundling it's resources into the portal site
MSN.com.

With Microsoft executing the strategy of bundling all these services,
the future growth of these new revenue streams is huge. Thus, it can
be argued that the potential earnings growth to be realized from
e-commerce alone presents an opportunity for long term investors to
continue buying the stock at these levels. Many investors spend
countless hours trying to discover the next Microsoft. However, it is
within the realm of possibility that the next Microsoft could very
well be …………… Microsoft.

THE HIGH TECH ARENA
By Joe Arena
Jarena3773@aol.com


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HAVE A PROFITABLE DAY!!

Check out our Web Site at http://www.bull-market.com. We have made some changes. There are now some hotlinks for our list of 20 STOCKS FOR THE 1990'S AND THE NEW MILLENNIUM and for our new list of TEN STOCKS FOR AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS. We have added a bunch of hotlinks to some great financial-investment sites.

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Copyright 1998, The Bull Market Report

Email Address: BullMrkt99@Bull-Market.com

The information herein has been obtained from sources which are believed to be reliable, but there are no guarantees as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Consult with your financial advisor before making any financial changes.

© Copyright 1998, BizFN.com. All rights reserved.  This material is for personal use only.  Republication and redistribution, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of BizFN.com.   The content provided within the BizFN.com web site is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice.  At no such time should information contained on BizFN.com   be considered an offer to buy or sell securities.

 
 
ion, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of BizFN.com.   The content provided within the BizFN.com web site is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice.  At no such time should information contained on BizFN.com   be considered an offer to buy or sell securities.