The
Bull Market Report ä
August 24, 1998
Volume 2, #46
The Bull Market Report is
published by http://www.bull-market.com. Visit Bull-Market.com for your free
email subscription to the newsletter.
This
report covers Monday's market activity.
Blue-chip
stocks scored some gains Monday, but the broad market
finished mixed after earlier trying to extend the rebound
from
Friday's steep drop, but failing.
U.S. bonds fell for the first time in four days as the
dollar declined
against the yen and equity markets stabilized, causing
investors to
balk at yields near record lows.
Benchmark 30-year Treasury bonds gave back some of
Friday's gains,
falling ½ point and pushing the yield up 3 basis points
to 5.46
percent. On Friday, they posted the biggest gain in more
than two
months as tumbling bond and currency markets in Russia
and Latin
America, and falling stocks around the world, drove
investors to the
relative safety of U.S. government debt.
U.S. stocks were mixed as Chevron Corp. and other
companies that
depend on economic growth to increase profits fell, while
drugmakers
such as American Home Products Corp. gained.
Yields on U.S. government securities maturing all the way
out to 2028
are below the Federal Reserve's 5.50 percent target for
overnight
lending between banks. Some traders say that's a signal
the Fed may
lower interest rates before long to offset a slowing
economy.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 7-to-6 margin
on the New
York Stock Exchange, with 1,413 up, 1,650 down and 496
unchanged.
NYSE volume totaled 560 million shares, down from 725
million on
Friday, option expiration day.
Overseas Monday, Tokyo's Nikkei stock average fell 2.0%,
Germanys DAX
index rose 1.4%, and London's FT-SE 100 rose 1.4%.
Amazon (AMZN) was up $5 to $135, Yahoo (YHOO) up 2 to
$98, American
Express (AXP) up 2 to 97, IBM up ¾ to 128 ½, Lucent
(LU) up 1 to 88,
but Qwest (QWST) was down 2 to 31 ½. The Tellabs and
Ciena merger
appears to ON again, with TLAB dropping 4 to 58 and CIEN
adding 5 to
36. Traders say that Tellabs will offer .7 to .8 shares
for Ciena,
down from the 1 for 1 exchange that they originally
offered.
Microsoft, Cisco and Intel hardly budged for the day.
COMMENTARY
Monday was a sleepy August Monday with prices rallying in
the morning,
fading later and then closing mostly higher, but somewhat
mixed, for
the day. The S&P was up nicely today but Nasdaq was
down. So, once
again, the big caps were up and the smaller caps were
down. The
average Russell 2000 small cap has lost over 40% of its
value since
the highs earlier in the year. Comments by Goldman Sachs'
U.S. stock
strategist Abby Joseph Cohen, however, added support to
the market
after midday. Cohen, one of Wall Street's most respected
stock market
analysts, said U.S. stocks are five to eight percent
undervalued, and
reiterated her well-known year-end price targets -
forecasting that
the Dow will hit 9,300. In both cases, as she has said
many times,
she expects the indices to easily reach and surpass her
targets.
Among the big Nasdaq movers Monday were Ciena Corp.
(CIEN) which
jumped 5 to close at 36 1/8. The company gained back 16
percent of
its value following Friday's big sell-off after AT&T
said it would not
further evaluate Ciena's products that increase the
capacity of fiber
optic phone lines and data networks. Ciena said that it
is
comfortable with current analyst revenue expectations for
1998 and
1999, despite losing out on any possible AT&T
purchase.
We are looking for calmer, higher markets this week.
Good investing!
IN THIS ISSUE YOU WILL FIND:
$$$$$ IBM TO OFFER THE COBRA NEXT WEEK
$$$$$ INTEL RATING RAISED
$$$$$ LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES UNVEILS SPEECH SOFTWARE
$$$$$ SPRINT RAISES THE SPEED LIMIT ON NETWORK DATA FLOW
$$$$$ THE PC MAGAZINE 100 MOST INFLUENTIAL COMPANIES
$$$$$ CISCO NO. 1 IN INTERNET CONCENTRATORS IN 2Q REPORT
THE HIGH TECH ARENA - The Microsoft Juggernaut Rolls On
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NEWS ON STOCKS WE LIKE:
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$$$$$ IBM TO OFFER THE COBRA NEXT WEEK
IBM aims to upset the sleepy conformity of the
consumer personal
computer industry next week when it unveils a
screaming-fast machine
designed to stir excitement among power-hungry PC users,
industry
sources said. The sleek, black PC, code-named
"Cobra," will run on
the new Pentium II 450 megahertz chip that INTEL CORP is
set to
introduce on Monday, and will come with 128 megabytes of
computer
memory and a 16.8 gigabyte hard disk. The new machine
will carry a
list price of slightly more than $2,000 for a full-power
machine that
promises not to be quickly outdated.
$$$$$ INTEL RATING RAISED
Piper Jaffray said they raised his rating on
INTEL CORP to a strong
buy and raised their 1998 and 1999 earnings estimates on
the chip
giant, saying the outlook for the company is the
strongest in several
quarters. They raised their 1998 estimates to $3.13 a
share from
$3.07 previously and 1999 estimates to $3.81 from $3.58 a
share,
respectively. Their new 12-month price target for Intel
is $105, or
27 times 1999 earnings estimates.
COMMENT: Now thats aggressive
and we think a bit high. We could
see 23 times earnings, but not 27. Our price target is
$95 for this
time next year.
$$$$$ LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES UNVEILS SPEECH SOFTWARE
Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU), a large
telecommunications equipment
developer and manufacturer, said it was launching new
state-of-the-art
voice-activated computer software.
The software, the Lucent Speech Application Platform, is
used to
create voice systems for personal computers. The systems
were of a
caliber previously available only on telephones.
The software is available immediately. Lucent said its
first three
customers for the product were Intel Corp. (INTC),
Cambridge
Consultants Ltd. and 900 News Inc./Stock News Now.
COMMENT: We think Lucent in the
80s is a good value. The high for
the year is 108 ½ and todays close is $88, up 1.
$$$$$ SPRINT RAISES THE SPEED LIMIT ON NETWORK DATA FLOW
400 Percent Increase Will Give Sprint World's
Fastest Internet
Backbone Route
Sprint Corp. (FON) today announced that it plans to
significantly
boost the transmission speed and bandwidth of its
Internet backbone to
OC-48 (2.5 gigabits per second), the fastest type of
backbone service
available. The upgrade from OC-12 (622 megabits per
second) will
dramatically increase Sprint's bandwidth by more than 400
percent.
One OC-48 connection could support more than 175,000
dial-up users
sending and receiving files at the same time.
This service enhancement promises to meet consumer
demands for fast,
reliable performance over the Sprint Internet backbone.
With data
moving at 2.5 gigabytes per second (Gbps) over the Sprint
fiber optic
network, business users will have reliable and higher
speed
connectivity to expand their operations globally in such
emerging
applications as Internet commerce.
At the core of Sprint's upgrade are the use of Cisco
Systems, Inc.'s
12000 series Gigabit Switch Routers (GSRs) and CIENA
Corporation's
dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) technology.
Cisco and
CIENA have recently combined forces in Internet Protocol
(IP) over
DWDM technology to develop a high-capacity optical IP
backbone. This
high-speed deployment by Sprint ties the Cisco 12000 GSR
directly to
CIENA's long-haul DWDM systems to create an expanded
optical layer to
Sprint's all-digital, all-fiber network. The Cisco 12000
will
interface directly into CIENA's DWDM system interfaces at
2.5 Gbps,
without the need for additional intermediate network
elements such as
SONET terminal multiplexers.
COMMENT: This is a good sign for
Ciena, as they have struggled
recently. For Cisco, its just one more deal in
their quest to take
over the world. For Sprint, it proves their desire to
maintain their
strong position in the bandwidth business.
$$$$$ THE PC MAGAZINE 100 MOST INFLUENTIAL
COMPANIES
IBM, Intel and Microsoft Continue to Top PC
Magazine's List; Cisco and
Lucent Turn in Strong Performances; Yahoo! Leaps to #13
from #99
PC Magazine, a Ziff-Davis publication (ZD), today
announced their
annual listing of the top 100 most influential companies
in
computing -- the PC Magazine 100 -- a feature in the
magazine's
upcoming September 22 issue. Microsoft Corp., Intel Corp.
and IBM
Corp. hold on to the top positions, respectively, while
Dell Computer
Corp. and America Online Inc. make their top 10 debut
this year.
The top ten:
1. Microsoft Corp.
2. Intel Corp.
3. IBM Corp.
4. Compaq Computer Corp.
5. Hewlett-Packard Co.
6. Cisco Systems Inc.
7. Sun Microsystems Inc.
8. America Online Inc.
9. Dell Computer Corp.
10. Netscape Communications Corp.
PC Magazine produced the list so buyers could
gain insight into the
relative performance and standing of those key companies
most
impacting today's fast-paced PC market. Because of its
leadership
position, PC Magazine is well-positioned to closely
examine these
companies and track their progress over time.
"History has shown that one hot product or idea or a
healthy dose of
venture capital can turn a sleeping giant or the new kid
on the block
into the latest trendsetter," says Michael J.
Miller, executive vice
president and editor-in-chief of PC Magazine.
Three dozen PC Magazine senior editorial staff members
debated the
relative influence of hundreds of companies, considering
such factors
as annual revenues, key product lines and market share;
however,
financial success alone did not determine final rankings.
Some of the
hottest companies in the business and some of the
highest-ranked in
the magazine's estimation remain barely profitable.
Last year's leaders still remain on top. And while there
are 20
percent fewer Internet companies on this year's list as
compared with
last year's, they still represent one-third of the PC
Magazine 100.
Highly-visible Amazon.com is one of sixteen companies
joining the PC
Magazine 100 for the first time. Newcomers include:
Lucent Technologies Inc. (31)
Amazon.com Inc. (33)
Cendant Corp. (42)
nVidia Corp. (50)
Rambus Inc. (52)
MetaCreations Corp. (58)
3Dfx Interactive Inc. (68)
Gartner Group Inc. (73)
Quantum Corp. (82)
Vocaltec Communications Ltd. (83)
Dragon Systems Inc. (88)
Quark Inc. (92)
CIDCO Inc. (93)
Peoplesoft Inc. (94)
Home Network (97)
In Focus Systems Inc. (98)
The complete Top 100 list can be found online at
http://www.pcmag.com
and in the September 22 issue of PC Magazine.
COMMENT: You will see the leaders of
the future on these lists.
$$$$$ CISCO NO. 1 IN INTERNET CONCENTRATORS IN 2Q
REPORT
Dataquest said its preliminary second quarter
data confirmed that
Cisco Systems Inc. has moved into the top spot in the
market for
remote access concentrators, the equipment used by
Internet service
providers (ISPs) to handle incoming calls from
computer users. Cisco
showed explosive growth during the last year, nearly
doubling its
market share to become No. 1 in the hotly contested
Internet
concentrator business, dislodging former leaders 3Com
Corp. and Ascend
Communications Inc. Dataquest analysts project healthy
growth for the
remote access concentrator market as companies rely on
the Internet to
increase productivity
We REPEAT the following article for those that missed it.
We have
received some VERY positive feedback from our readers.
OUR NEW EDITOR DEPARTMENT!
THE HIGH TECH ARENA
The Microsoft Juggernaut Rolls On
By Joe Arena
With the IPO of Geocities last week, combined with
Microsoft quietly
increasing it's reach on the Internet, we may be getting
closer to the
point where many are going to realize that the emperor
has no clothes
relative to the valuations of Internet stocks. With
e-commerce expected to reach
$28 billion this year, there is no doubt of the prolific
growth potential
of this nascent industry. But with competition for ad
revenues increasing,
investors are going to take a much closer look at the
viability of each
individual company's business model, and the rising tide
will no longer lift all
boats.
Geocities exemplifies the growing challenge of leveraging
unique
visitors and pageviews into revenue growth better than
most Internet companies.
The company generated 14.8 million unique visitors and
925 million
pageviews last month. Although Geocities is the seventh
most popular site on the
web, there is a paradox between their business model and
the prospect of
generating advertising revenues. The company was founded
as a place in
cyberspace for people who eschew advertising and business
to develop their own
websites. This perception still exists, and it is making
the selling of
advertising a difficult task. To illustrate, consider
that Infoseek (SEEK), which
is ranked the number nine web site, had three times the
ad revenue versus
Geocities in the recently ended quarter. This company is
in a business with no
significant barriers to entry, rampant competition,
questionable management, and
dubious prospects at best for becoming profitable. It has
been a losing
proposition to short Internet IPO's, and Geocities may
not be an excellent short
candidate despite it's questionable fundamentals.
However, those who expect it
to appreciate in the manner of Amazon.com or Yahoo may be
severely
disappointed.
Microsoft, on the other hand, is now a close second to
Yahoo in terms
of unique users, with 24.1 million versus 26.6 for Yahoo.
This figure
includes not only users of MSN.com, but all other
Microsoft sites as well. The
plan is for Microsoft to integrate all their sites into
one portal site
(MSN.com) this fall. This will include Hotmail (e-mail),
Expedia (on line travel
service), Carpoint (online car buying service), and Home
Advisor (online real
estate service). Microsoft Expedia now boasts 2.5 million
users per month,
and is driving bookings of around $6 million per week.
More importantly,
Microsoft will now begin penetrating the more lucrative
Corporate Travel space
in a big way with American Express Interactive. Estimates
are that 300
corporations will be participating in this service by the
end of this year. These
corporations, as you might have guessed, are all NT and
BackOffice
accounts. Microsoft's acquisition of Hotmail could also
prove to be very
rewarding, as it now has over 21 million subscribers, and
is signing up about
100,000 per day. Microsoft Carpoint is now driving
business in excess of $250
million per month through automobile dealers. How about
MSFDC, a joint venture
with First Data Corp for online bill paying? At some
point in time, probably
determined by the evolutionary pace of encryption
technology and user interfaces,
we will all be paying our bills on line. However, right
now, six major banks
have signed agreements with Microsoft to participate.
Last week, Microsoft took another major step toward
becoming number
one. First, the company signed an advertising agreement
for Home
Advisor with Yahoo on its finance and real estate sites.
Microsoft also signed
distribution agreements with WhoWhere, Infoseek, Tripod,
Switchboard, Pathfinder,
DoubleClick, BigYellow, and GTEInterNet. Web sites of USA
Today,
Worth Magazine, and US News And World Report.
The launch of MSN.com is expected to reach 30% of
Internet users
immediately. Since only 3% of the world's population has
Internet
access right now, that number is small on a percentage
basis as well
as an absolute basis. But in five years if a billion
people have
Internet access, this number becomes even more
significant if you
extrapolate some share growth. It is also germane to bear
in mind
that e-commerce could conceivably be a trillion dollar
business in the
next 5-7 years.
There are those who question the competitive threat that
America
Online (AOL) represents to Microsoft. There is no
question that
America Online has developed brand equity, which is an
incalculable
asset. Despite this, it is far too early in the game for
this brand
equity to be an important consideration. Was brand equity
able to
prevent the demise of Apple Computer? How about the
equity that
Netscape Navigator developed in the early stages of the
browser wars?
The fact remains that the Microsoft mantra of
"embrace and extend" has
proved to be a formidable strategy which has been able to
overcome
many of Microsoft's late entries into certain markets.
The
risk/reward ratio of betting that Microsoft will not get
it right when
it comes to competing with America Online is not
favorable. Consider
that MSN.com already boasts more unique users than AOL,
which very few
people realize. More importantly, it is all about
content, and
Microsoft understands this better than anyone. To
illustrate this,
consider the following analogy. When you watch Seinfeld
on TV, does
it matter whether it is on ABC or NBC? Of course not;
however, if
all your favorite television shows were on NBC, there
would be no
reason to watch other stations. This is the rationale
behind
Microsoft's strategy of bundling it's resources into the
portal site
MSN.com.
With Microsoft executing the strategy of bundling all
these services,
the future growth of these new revenue streams is huge.
Thus, it can
be argued that the potential earnings growth to be
realized from
e-commerce alone presents an opportunity for long term
investors to
continue buying the stock at these levels. Many investors
spend
countless hours trying to discover the next Microsoft.
However, it is
within the realm of possibility that the next Microsoft
could very
well be
Microsoft.
THE HIGH TECH ARENA
By Joe Arena
Jarena3773@aol.com
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HAVE A PROFITABLE
DAY!!
Check out our Web Site
at http://www.bull-market.com. We have made some
changes. There are now some hotlinks for our list of 20
STOCKS FOR THE 1990'S AND THE NEW MILLENNIUM and for our
new list of TEN STOCKS FOR AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS. We have
added a bunch of hotlinks to some great
financial-investment sites.
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Copyright 1998, The
Bull Market Report
Email Address: BullMrkt99@Bull-Market.com
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reliable, but there are no guarantees as to its accuracy
or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion
expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or
sale of any security. Consult with your financial advisor
before making any financial changes.
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Copyright 1998, BizFN.com. All rights reserved.
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