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AGN Capital Market Commentary


By Ana Garcia-Navarro

Ana Garcia-Navarro is the publisher of AGN Financial Newsletter. Ms. Garcia-Navarro has a first Masters in International Business Administration from Schiller International University, Paris, France and a second Masters in Investment Management from City University in London, UK. She has previously worked as a money manager for high net worth individuals at the New York office of Merrill Lynch International. Ms. Garcia- Navarro is a registered Investment Advisor in the United States. You may visit AGN Capital on the web at: http://www.agnfin.com/news

January 30, 1999


The latest 4Q GDP once again verified what most of us have thought for quite some time now; that the U.S. is still one of the best places to invest in, anywhere in the world. In the latest report, consumption came in at a whooping 4.4%; versus a previous 4.1% for the 3Q. Just about anything in the computers sector sold last year-durable goods rose over 21% during the 4Q. Even the net export deficit was much lower at a-.03% versus a pervious -1% to -2% range seen last year.

Although, we are not out of the woods yet- a deterioration in Latin America next year, due in part to the recent devaluation in Brazil, will be yet another challenge for the U.S. since the percentages for our total exports to Latin America are much larger than had been the case for Asia and slower growth in Latin America will mean lower demand for US made products. Still, the U.S. derives over 70% of its growth from domestic consumption so a strong demand for U.S. made products here in the U.S. will remain key to growth in 1999. Finally, the report for increases in labor costs also came in below economist expectations (a good sign) and was 3.4% for 1998 versus a 3.3 gain for 1997. The 4Q gains were only .7%.

For the month of January, the S&P 500 was up 3.1%, small stocks have not done badly as both the small and mid cap indexes are up 2.1% and 2.9% respectively this month. The Dow is once again trailing with a .69% gain for January. Still, the January effect has once again come to pass. January has a statistically distinct performance; with positive returns exceeding those of gains posted in any other month of the year. Also, the growth sector has put in quite a rally, during the past few days and is once again ahead of the value sector-so we continue with last years trend of large cap stocks and a growth style of investing.

Favorite sectors for 1999: technology, health, and intent

Wishing you a terrific week!

 




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