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Yesterday the S&P 500 index price change was -1.44% and 57.4% of stocks
out-performed the index. As of last nights close, there were 1094 stocks trading below their standard
range of share price volatility. Of these unusually depressed names, 114
stocks have sufficiently good evidence of improving fundamentals and
sufficient liquidity to justify a trading long position. Our current list of
trading long ideas is unchanged from 114 the previous day. New long ideas
yesterday numbered 2 stocks. Open long positions that can be added to at the
current price number 50 stocks. Yesterday, 2 stocks that are in our
portfolio list moved back into their standard range of share price
volatility, prompting a flat position. Our average profit on those positions
was 2.4%. The average holding period was 35 days. As of last nights close, there were 1155 stocks trading above their standard
range of share price volatility. Of these unusually extended names, 198 have
sufficiently good evidence of deteriorating fundamentals and sufficient
liquidity to justify a trading short position. Our current list of trading
short ideas is down from 200 the previous day. New short ideas yesterday
numbered 1 stocks. Open short positions that can be added to at the current
price number 107 stocks. Yesterday, 3 stocks that were in our trading short
portfolio moved back into their standard range of share price volatility,
prompting a covered position. Our average profit on those positions was
12.0%. The average holding period was 18 days. GEARS produces a series of long/short portfolio simulations based on our
long-term pattern recognition work in the corporate accounting data and our
short-term volatility calculator. These simulations are designed to extract
returns from unusual share price volatility. Our more aggressive long/short strategy chooses the 100 most deeply
depressed stocks with improving fundamentals for the long fund and the 100
most extended stocks with deteriorating fundamentals for the short fund.
Positions are equally weighted. Last week the GEARS aggressive hedge
returned 0.57%. The long portfolio was down 2.29%. The short portfolio was
up 2.86%. We have now collected summary income statements from companies accounting
for 80% of the capital value of the S&P Index. The average sales growth rate
continues to improve and the population of companies achieving an
improvement in sales growth is up again for the third consecutive quarter. The traditional industrial sectors remain mired in recession with sales
growth down on average and more frequently. The consumer cyclicals(mostly
autos, housing and retailers) are mounting a recovery in average sales
growth and frequency of improvement. A sales acceleration from the autos and
housing sectors has often been associated with higher interest rates. That
implies that our biggest market risk now is higher interest rates and lower
valuation associated with that, not growth and earnings disappointments. Our short portfolio is leveraged toward high valuations and falling growth.
The long portfolio is more large cap and defensive. The long/short structure
remains more leveraged to a market decline. Research reports describing recent fundamentals developments by sector
industry, investing style and index category are available at
http://www.the-gears.com/newstyle_menu.htm.. The compound average return to the GEARS aggressive hedge over the past 13
weeks was -5.28%. Over the past year, the average return was -6.55%. Over
the 252 week simulation period, the average annual return was 17.08%. Weekly
standard deviation of returns was 2.05%. The attached file contains lists of new long and new short ideas as of
yesterday, as well as long and short ideas that were covered as of
yesterdays close. Details and rationale behind all of these decisions are
available at http://www.the-gears.com/FreeStuff.htm The information contained in this report is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not
guaranteed, nor in providing it does Global Equity Analytics & Research Service, L.L.C. assume any responsibility or liability. This report is not to
be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The inventories of Global Equity Analytics & Research Service,
L.L.C. and the holdings of its respective members and officers and companies with which they are associated, may from time to time include the
securities mentioned in this report. © Copyright 1998, Business Financial Network. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Business Financial Network. The content provided within Business Financial Network's web sites is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice. At no such time should information contained on Business Financial Network be considered an offer to buy or sell securities. This analysis is based on publicly-available information, and is in no way warranted by Business Financial Network as to accuracy or completeness. Business Financial Network does not guarantee to advise you as to any change in this information. Business Financial Network owners, editors, management, and contributors may currently be stockholders in this Company as the result of purchasing its stock on the open market. Business Financial Network may from time to time purchase or sell this Company's securities on the open market. Business Financial Network otherwise has no affiliation with this Company. Business Financial Network is not compensated by the in any way whatsoever by the company for issuing or distributing this report. |