Internet Financial Connection:
American Home Products
(AHP)
August 12, 1998
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John Curran of Curran
Capital Management provides the following stock ideas on
American Home Products (AHP 50) and Osteotech (OSTE 22
3/8). Below is the write up.
John Curran of Curran Capital Management has one of the
best track records around. According to Nelson's tracking
service for money managers, Curran Capital Management has
returned 24% annually for the last 10 years, after fees
and was up 35% in 1997. Their focus is on the healthcare
industry.
The latest stock he is very bullish on and has been
buying is American Home Products.
On June 1st of this year, American Home and Monsanto
agreed to merge together. American Home
shareowners will retain their shares and Monsanto
shareowners will receive 1.15 shares in the new company
for each share of Monsanto that they currently own. The
merger between the two companies is expected save $1.25
billion annually.
What John is bullish on is that in early 1999, the
combined companies will release a new
drug called Celebra, which he feels will easily receive
FDA approval. Celebra will be used
in the treatment of arthritis. Most arthritis medications
available today have the potential
to cause serious gastrointestinal damage, such as ulcers.
Celebra should be effective in
treating arthritis without causing damage to the stomach,
intestines or kidneys.
"This drug will be entering into a $12 billion
market and I think it will generate between
$1.25 billion to $1.5 billion in sales during 1999,"
says John, "It will be one of the hottest drugs next
year." To top things off, Pfizer will also be
marketing Celebra. He notes that in essence, there will
be 9,000 salespeople marketing this new drug. John thinks
American Home will be one of the best performing drug
stocks over the next 2 years, with their shares doubling
during that time period.
Another stock he likes is Osteotech. They are a leading
provider of human bone and bone connective tissue for
transplantation. Between 1994 and 1996 their
earnings languished because they could not write off
foreign research and development investments. "This
was a major drain on their performance," says John.
When those operations closed down, earnings exploded to
reflect "what was really happening."
John expects them to earn $1.05 this year and $1.40 next
year. "They are growing at
30%+ and selling at 22 times this years earnings... They
will continue to grow at that
rate for at least 2 to 3 years going forward."
His target is $40 sometime during the next 12
months.
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