Opinion the 9/6/07	development of the exchange rate over 5 days
short-term: bear 54 euros means-term: bull 58,5 euros

Thursday 9/6/07

55,55 euros +1,50%

After low just above the 50 euros, the Total share started a sharp rebound of 10% in nth.

The 55,50 euros are the primary goal bull of this rebound and I think that run need to blow on 54 euros and to be able to cross this first obstacle.

Resistances account for 55, 70 41 92,50 and 60 euros.

Supports with 54 - - 52,80 and 50 euros.

 

Friday 8/19/07

52,47 euros +2,92%

The 55 euros did not hold and the fell well under 5400 points

The support with 50 euros, was not touched yet to make a sweater-back on the old channel bear associated with a test with support bull.

The exchange rate of the oil which dropped and the fear of a fall of economic growth resultants of the problems of American credit are the main causes of the fall of Total.

The oil price remained very high despite everything, one sees that the exchange rate of Total made low an in March during the consolidation of the beginning of year, the Total share was worth 49 euros while oil swapped with 56 dollars the barrel, today Total almost returned at the price of March whereas oil is with 72 dollars, 28% expensive than in February. One should not forget either the rise of 4% of the dollar since mid-July, which gives a fall very limited of oil.

The fall of Total is the engine of the strong fall of the , the current price do not develop the firm, but rather the possible fall of the world economic growth.

It is obvious that oil can only go up in the future, Total with a dividend 2007 announced with 2 euros, that is to say 3,77% of output and a with 9,84 is a share of not very expensive output.

 

Friday 8/3/07

55,18 euros -1,57%

The Total share broke by the top my channel bear of April, this break was followed of a big rise of 18% up to 63 euros.

This rise comes from the same price increase of the oil which passed from 55 to 75 dollars.

After this higher of mid-July the share was violently turned over, to carry out complete rise.

Maintaining the share is on a support with 55 euros which could at court term return the exchange rates on the top of a channel to 58 euros.

Under 55 euros one will aim 53 then 50, but that will want to say that the will have to go to test the 5400 points.