Analyzes for the week |
For the first week full with 2009
Between Christmas and last Friday, with very low volumes, the is installed from 8%, the question is now to know that it will be the reaction of the speculative line managers who have played the fall for several months.
They can launch, as of this week, a bull of beginning of year with objectives with 3950 then 4250 points or then to invalidate the last rebound without volume, take again support on or the #F56D8F support of my analysis of the , then to set out again in neutrality, always on standby of a signal bull or bear.
The future of Friday touched the 3400 points towards 22:00, that announces a possible opening to +1,5% to us.
Week important to come, then at Monday afternoon to follow my analysis of the , published every evening before 19:00.
For the week of Christmas.
This week should be calm in volume of exchange, but that can involve volatility and of splits expressed as a percentage.
very stagnates (very light rise) and goes up, they could cross before the end of the year, that would be a large signal bull, like a fence above the 3360 points.
The 1st quarter 2009 will be economically very bad, I think that the stockmarkets already integrated that and that they look at already the second quarters. Several analysts provide for a stop of degradation for the second half-year, it is not a recovery, but a stop of the fall of the economy, that could be enough with the to return above the 4500 points, at the end of 2009.
One awaits the publications of the sales of Christmas, the plan “” for at the end of January and the results on the US economy of a directing rate near to zero.
The market does not have, per hour current, of reason to drop under the 2800 points.
Graph of the development of the since 1994, out of monthly magazine:
Two speculative bubbles of great magnitude in 10 years, bubble Internet of 2000 exploded until 2003, the low point was touched the day before input in war of the United States against Iraq.
The bubble financial, real, of the raw materials and the credit deflates since 1 year and half, the question is to know if this fall is sufficient to set out again on economic good base or if it is necessary still that the drops during more than one year to reach the 2000 points.
A fence monthly magazine, under the 3080 points, will be a signal strong bear, with the 2400 then 2000 points in objective for 2009.
There remain eetings before the end of the year 2008:
December 22nd and 23rd; normally opened meetings.
December 24th, takes care of Christmas, meeting opened, but curtailed, of 9:00 to 14:00
December 25th and 26th, Christmas Day and his following day, closed meeting.
December 29th and 30th; normally opened meetings.
December 31st, day before New Year's Day, meeting opened, but curtailed, of 9:00 to 14:00
Good festivals with all, pass a Merry Christmas.
Positions in progress at the 7/20/08:
* recomputed by withdrawing the 1,30 euro of dividend
** recomputed by withdrawing the 3,80 euro of dividend
(updating 8/29/08):
44 total: 38 gaining to +5% give a of 198%
8 in progress gives a - 245%
The performance since the October 23rd, 2006 of this page is of -91%: + 156% of realized and -247% less been worth in progress.
The made over the same period -14%.
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