Analyzes of the exchange rates of the |
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- Definition and Composition of the CAC 40 - E-book “to begin out of purse” with 6 euros |
Opinion the 1/2/09: Short term: Medium term: Long run: neutral |
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Points pivots in weekly magazine: (tendency |
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Tuesday 1/6/09
Enclose: +1,08% to 3296 points
Always bull; : +1,08%
One invalidates the negative aspect of hung on the previous day which worried me, but it is still not the scuffle to buy, volumes are weak for an exit bull.
I do not think only the funds which use the short sales massively are left their positions saleswomen, they are always implied with the fall, but does not strengthen their positions. Then the investors who have liquidities are always on standby, which gives few volumes.
Those which plays drop it and which is persuaded that one will turn over under the 3000 points in a few weeks do not may find it beneficial to slow down the rebound, plus the will go up high and more they will have benefit to make during the fall.
Those which play the rise still too much to re-enter in force, they will re-enter surely too late, but it is not very serious, they do not have any more the taste for danger.
Therefore, in spite of a rise of the exchange rates and of a configuration which becomes very bull, the investors are neutral.
Graphically the exit continuous bull and an intermediate objective at 3494 points can be aimed before the weekend, but before it will be necessary to cross weekly located at 3431 points, at 5 points of highest of the day.
could cross before Friday, good signal bull.
The objective of the 3494 points comes from the of of the fall from September-October - November:
The last of the fall from November at 3363 points was exceeded today, this fall is completely recalled, it is thus necessary now to attack large fall 4058 2828 points.
The first was already exceeded at 3243 points, this level becomes super-support, strengthened by and .
The next one is at 3494 points, objective for the weekend. Then 3697 then 3900 points will be signed.
nth
in nths
General tendency medium term of the according to this board of indicators:
Positive to 90/100
Monday 1/5/09
Enclose: +0,31% to 3360 points
Meeting entirely apart from ball; : +0,31%
Volumes of this meeting are still rather low, the goes up that slightly and the candle in hung is rather alarming.
It is always positive, but I still await the impulse bull to validate the exit of ball.
Today in fact the median values attracted the glance of the investors, with for example, the important rises of Thomson (+12%), Havas (+9%), Archos (+20%), (+9%), (+9%) and (+9%).
The 3363 points, which I sign since the beginning of December, are reached. I remind the meeting that it is the last of fall of November:
The objectives bulls reached are often followed of a small pause before setting out again. Here one can, either to continue to go up about the 100% to 3688 points, or with the fall to take support on the last of rise 0808 6582, i.e. objectives with 3110 and 3050 points.
If the wants to recall the rise since Christmas, the supports of are 3314,3272,3298 and 3204 points.
goes up slightly and is ready to cross the with the rise.
In conclusion, it is always short-term bull as long as the remains above the 3264 3481 points and it is always bull means-term as long as the remains above the 3200 points
nth
in nths
General tendency medium term of the according to this board of indicators:
Positive to 90/100
Friday 1/2/09
Enclose: +4,09% to 3349 points
New signal bull on the markets; : +4,09%
I unite with the you to wish, me also, an happy new year 2009.
The takes off of 4% in this first meeting of the year, the performance since the point low touched the day before Christmas (at 3100 points) is of 8,2%.
These 8% of rise were carried out on eetings with very small volume, the majority of the investors institutional being on leave, it will be necessary to wait the next week for really taking into account this rebound.
Indeed, either the large investors panic with the rise by buying up their positions saleswomen, then begin a bull of beginning of year, or these investors do not believe in this rise and places themselves to strengthen their positions saleswomen; the answer starting from next Monday.
I pass from neutral to
(bull) for the means-term and I pass from
(bear) to neutral for the long-term. This last change of opinion is a large reversal, I aim 4250 in less than nths.
is exceeded, goes up and the breaks its ball by the top; large signal of purchase to be validated by one taken off the next week.
Graph in weekly magazine:
The weekly broke its channel bear by the top, the left the area of Crash, one aims at weekly which drops too still much quickly to hope to break it quickly, it will be thus an objective and a point of sale for those which bought under the 3250 points.
The 3172, monthly pivot of January, are exceeded the first day of the month, it is bull, the objectives bulls are 3388 and 3558 points.
Weekly pivot at 3268 points for the next week, it is bull for the next week, as long as one remains above one will play of the objectives bulls at 3431 then 3513 points, on the other hand if one breaks the 3268, one will play of the objectives bears at 3186 then 3023 points.
The note validates its signal of reversal, I expect with it joins the 0/100. That means possible rise of the over all January and at the beginning of February.
nth
in nths
General tendency medium term of the according to this board of indicators:
Positive to 80/100
Wednesday 12/31/08
Enclose: +0,03% to 3217 points
Test of ; : +0,03%
, at 3250 points, was tested and the point monthly pivot from December except for 3264 points to stop the rebound, at the point.
A fence on 3264, above , was too hard to hold with a so low volume and a half-meeting, the market preferred to close its opening with a fence with balance on 3217 points.
2008 is finished, the dropped by 42,7%, that is to say 2400 points of loss.
Graph in weekly magazine:
The week is not finished since the purse is open Friday, January 2, but one sees already that the weekly broke its channel bear by the top, the reversal sets up oneself.
3172, monthly pivot of January, while remaining above the objectives bulls are 3388 and 3558 points, on the other hand if one encloses in lower part one aims at the fall towards 3002 and 2786 points.
3907, annual pivot for 2009, while remaining in lower part it is bear for the next year, the objectives with the fall are 2148 points (- 33%) and 1079 items (-66%), on the other hand while passing above, that will be bull with objectives with the rise which are 4976 items (+54%) and 6735 items (109%).
I think that 2009 will be neutral, i.e. the should oscillate around the 3907 points with low around the 3000/3200 points and higher around the 4500/4700 points.
6168 points, higher reached on June 1st, 2007 and 2838 points, low reached on November 21st, 2008. I will make calculations of on these extremes to find objectives bulls. These objectives bulls are 3623,4110,4503 and 4896 points.
Next meeting, Friday, January 2, this meeting will have a schedule full, but will be rather calm, it is necessary to wait the Monday the 5th, to take again the serious things.
nth
in nths
General tendency medium term of the according to this board of indicators:
Positive to 60/100
Tuesday 12/30/08
Enclose: +2,76% to 3217 points
Break of ; : +2,76%
, at 3190 points, contained the rise of the throughout this last meeting full with the year, but a strong movement of purchase took place with the fence, which saved additional 0,85% only with fixing and made it possible the to cross and to enclose above.
Graph with the of :
The 3184 6190 contained the , but the purchases in fence make it possible to touch according to 50% of the fall of mid-December.
Next objective, and 3247 points. The semi-meeting of tomorrow, last of the year, will have accesses to exceed the 3218 points, for then going to seek .
One finds oneself again between and , it is always neutral, but one moves away from the pit. The bulls avoided the fall and the markets now will want to test the force of the bears while touching and trying to exceed .
3264 points, monthly pivot of December. To reach this level for the last meeting of tomorrow would be a very good neutral signal, not of what to be delighted, but that will erase the negative aspect of the month and will give a candle monthly magazine of December in , sign of uncertainty, but also of reversal to the rise if January leaves to the rise.
The note passes under its support of the 60/100, for me, it is a large signal of reversal to the rise for the markets, medium term and perhaps long run.
I pass from neutral to
(bull) for the short-term one and I will pass from neutral to
(bull) for medium term as soon as the makes a fence above its .
After an attempt at large movement bear that I have announced for a few days, it is from now on a large movement bull which is perhaps in preparation.
To conclude, it is neutral, but that will move strong in January.
There remain eeting before the end of the year 2008:
December 31st, day before New Year's Day, meeting opened, but curtailed, of 9:00 to 14:00
nth
in nths
General tendency medium term of the according to this board of indicators:
Positive to 60/100
Monday 12/29/08
Enclose: +0,47% to 3130 points
One remains in area of support, perched at the edge of the pit; : +0,47%
The support of the 3100 points held, one remains inside ball.
It is seen that the rebounds on its old resistance, this sweater-back is a positive signal to be validated by a rise on the following day.
and drop slightly, they are the 2 next objectives with the rise, for tomorrow they will be to 3190 and 3255 points.
Low of the last meeting at 3094 points was a test of of of the 50% of rebound 2838/3340, in lower part one will aim 2957 points
As long as the 3100 points hold the rebound is played.
Weekly pivot at 3139 points, intermediate resistance to 3170, as soon as that is passed, will be easily to go to seek .
I upgraded the Board of the signals launched on the shares of the and Wallet followed with the note, where it is noticed that more no share is in preparation of purchase, but that the shares in preparation of short sales are increasingly numerous.
There remain eetings before the end of the year 2008:
December 30th; normally opened meetings.
December 31st, day before New Year's Day, meeting opened, but curtailed, of 9:00 to 14:00
a fence lowers Tuesday by it will validate a signal of fall
nth
in nths
General tendency medium term of the according to this board of indicators:
Positive to 30/100
