Bird Flu: Investment Opportunity?

Everyone seems to be talking about the Avian Flu,dollars. Investors are assuming these companies will
otherwise known as the H5N1 virus. We believe thegenerate large profits.
virus and danger is real, but are the investmentWell, what if investors are wrong? What if the fancy
opportunities for real?solutions being touted by many of the bird flu stocks
Watching the public market clamor for "Bird Fluare not as important as we are led to believe?
Stocks" reminds us of the "Internet Stock" bubble.Recently, a company in England announced that initial
We challenge investors to carefully think abouttests prove that a simple hand spray (which is
whether the bird flu is a great threat or just a greatalready sold in major department stores) is more
media story. With all the media coverage, would youthan 99.8% efficient in killing H5N1. The product was
be surprised to learn that in the entire world, theoriginally developed several years ago to prevent the
virus has only infected a total of 194 people and killedspread of certain germs and is entirely safe for use
a total of 110 people?by humans.
The current strain of the virus is not spread amongAccording to the Center for Disease Control and
humans. Every person previously infected with thePrevention, avoiding close contact with others,
virus had direct contact with sick birds (mainlycovering your mouth and nose, cleaning your hands
chickens). However, experts seem to agree that ifand avoiding to touch your eyes, nose or mouth -
the virus mutates into a contagious form, it isare the primary ways to prevent getting germs.
possible that it will kill millions of people.When you take a step back from all the hype, the
Big problems always present tremendous investmentreality is that simply wearing a medical mask and
opportunities. Investors in companies who developwashing hands frequently, will virtually assure that a
the products and services that truly solve any largeperson will not get infected.
problem can make millions. In anticipation of largeSometimes, the simple answers provide the best
profits, it should come as no surprise that manysolutions. If medical masks and soap are the most
investors have driven the market value of "bird flueffective defense, what becomes of all these "bird
stocks" to very high levels. The combined marketflu stocks"?
value of these stocks now exceeds several billion