Forex Trading - Technical Analysis Fallacy it Doesn't Predict the Future

Many new forex traders go into the market with theTherefore some banks will have to loose out if they
idea that technical analysis done right like the textare not part of the collective and what does one
book tells them is just about the same as the holyhave to do to get in. I think that it is a myth that
grail. It is just what you do. I will tell you now, thatbanks can unduly influence the market
you will most likely loose a significant amount ofScenario
money if you do just that.A trader analyzes the market, the market is rising on
Firstly let us get something very straight. technicalthis pair, it looks like a buy position. The thing that
analysis is a backward looking analysis. The processthe trader hasn't noticed is the dwindling volume in
involves analyzing events already gone. Now behaviorthe market the trades are leaving the market on this
being what it is means that past behavior generallyone. Sorry it looks like you are approaching a peak in
sets some predictors. Lets say that again "Pastthe market. The market may get news that
behavior generally sets some predictors". You gotcontinues its climb. It is also reaching a point where it
that. You see what you are saying is based on amight take a tumble. The analysis of indicators
historical perspective the mob rule of a lot of peoplecorrectly will advise you to stay out on this one until
doing things together makes likely behaviors tobetter conditions prevail and remember you can be
happen across the collective markets. Thesebuying or selling to achieve your desired returns.
indicators give a feel for the markets direction ofWith this scenario, if the forex trading analysis comes
movement.out to show the MACD correctly indicating a liquid
Scenariomarket and the moving averages moving correctly to
The market has moved up to a threshold at whichsuggest entry to the market. STOP, take a breath
your technical analysis suggests a turn is imminent.and ask yourself this " Is there a fundamental force
The trader takes a sell as the next direction is down.that is telling you that the masses might just have it
Along comes the government and raises interestwrong on this occasion" if so go with the gut instinct
rates a bit unexpected and the market continues toand stay put until a clearer indicator identifies the true
rise. The indicators of you were reading themnature, you might miss a bit, but you might save a
suggested that it might turn, but it also indicated thatlot.
the forex traders had left the floor, no one was inMany new forex traders show who are using
the market on that pair, it was becoming relativelytechnical analysis overload their indicators. Don't even
illiquid. Don't be the brave one and go in, wait until thebother! I keep it reasonably simple. I only use
market sets the new direction.candlestick charts. I only use MACD and simple
There are some who believe that the currency pairsmoving averages at 5 and 25 to analyze the market.
are pushed around by banks working as a collective. IYour mind may better understand other indicators.
know the banks have to move a lot of funds. TheyThat is fine use them if you feel more comfortable.
also have to at times find a a large amount ofThese are the ones I know and understand best.
currency to get a deal for a large corporation moving.Keep it simple for looking for general market
Ever purchased some heavy equipment to start adirections and likely turning points and then with
mine, probably not but you get the idea. Those guyspractice include other indicators to more clearly
need a huge amount of a currency to fund theidentify a change point
purchase of equipment. Not enough banks fromI hope this helps you to better understand the
around the world could collectively agree on exactlynature of technical trading and the forex markets.
the currency movement that was to be produced.