| There is a new conventional wisdom beginning to | | | | In the last few days however, oil has put in the |
| emerge from the stock market these days and it | | | | intermediate bottom and is prepared to make a |
| says that there's no way you can make money in a | | | | traders reversal to the upside. This move is |
| bear market unless you have the good fortune to be | | | | supported by the news of increasing violence |
| an expert market timer and bet against the recovery | | | | between Israel and Hamas, coupled with a recent |
| of the broad market. While it is true that having a | | | | decision by OPEC to reduce oil production in order to |
| sense of market timing can improve your bottom | | | | bolster the price of barrel of oil. Taken together, |
| line, that's not the only way to take advantage of | | | | these facts all point to the possibility of a short term |
| the current turbulence. By paying close attention to a | | | | rise in the price of apparel of oil of 10 to 20%, while |
| select group of exchange traded funds that | | | | the recent price reversal offers a definable support |
| represents important business and commodities | | | | level at $28 a barrel. This is a reward to risk ratio of |
| sectors in the global market, an astute trader can | | | | greater than four to one, and an astute trader can |
| find very reasonable trades with favorable reward to | | | | begin a buying program whenever he sees the price |
| risk ratios which offer a way to trade these markets | | | | of oil actually going up during trading hours. This |
| effectively. | | | | provides an additional level of security for short-term |
| Here is an example in oil, which can be traded using | | | | trading. |
| an exchange traded fund with a symbol of USO. | | | | If you examine the behavior of the price of oil after |
| Go to any web-based free stock market charting | | | | the market opens you will see that in the last 200 |
| website, like Yahoo finance and call up a 15 year | | | | trading days price moves in the direction of the |
| chart on a barrel of oil using monthly candlestick | | | | opening gap. So, if you see oil gap up there is the |
| charts. | | | | good probability that it will close higher than the open |
| You will see that this commodity trades in long | | | | that day. Conversely, if oil gaps down then you can |
| powerful swings that can last months at a time. You | | | | expect the price to be lower by the end of the day. |
| will also see that at crucial turning points the reversal | | | | This relationship is not always so readily apparent in |
| of the trend can be swift and violent. This means | | | | oil nor can it be used as a simple rule for any other |
| that to trade this exchange traded fund effectively, | | | | exchange traded fund. Only by constant attention |
| you must be alert to where we are in the current | | | | and analysis can you discover these kinds of tradable |
| trend and be alert to the possibility of turning points | | | | trends emerging from today's volatile stock market. |
| at critical price levels. | | | | The rewards for this hard work make it worth the |
| Currently, we are near the bottom of the most | | | | time for disciplined, pragmatic trader. |
| violent selloff in the shortest period of time that oil | | | | By looking for these kinds of favorable reward to |
| has experienced in the last 15 years. A barrel of oil | | | | risk ratio trades, a short-term trader is able to take |
| recently traded for under $30 a barrel while only a | | | | advantage of today's volatile stock market in a risk |
| few months ago it was trading near all-time records | | | | measured way that makes a lot more sense than |
| above $130 barrel. A selloff of this magnitude is an | | | | simply dumping money into a passive mutual fund and |
| indication of a market overreaction, where emotions | | | | hoping for success. Naturally, you must do your own |
| have gotten in the way of rational judgment. This is | | | | due diligence and take personal responsibility for your |
| entirely normal and should be expected. | | | | results. Good trading! |